Jonathan Xavier Weinert 2008

The following entry is a brief summary of the two papers I've written on electric bicycles and scooters (e-bikes) in China.  For the full details, refer to the papers written by Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, and also available on my website under the "My Projects" section.

SUMMARY:
E-bikes, though they floundered twice in the 80s and early 90s, experienced extraordinary growth in the late 90s to the present due to a combination of economic, technical, and political factors (Weinert, Ma and Cherry, 2006). Firstly, E-bike technology, specifically motors and batteries, improved significantly during the late 1990’s. Simple technology, a vast supplier base, and weak intellectual property protection made it easier for e-bike makers to enter the industry, increasing competition and driving prices down.
    Secondly, Incomes of urban households and the share spent on transportation both rose considerably due to improving economic conditions nationally. E-bike prices decreased, gasoline prices rose and electricity prices in rural areas dropped, making e-bikes more competitive economically with alternatives like gasoline-powered scooters and bus.
    Thirdly, national and local government policy motivated by energy and air quality issues created favorable conditions for e-bike growth. Banning gasoline powered motorcycles in large city centers removed the most competitive mode from the choice set.  National e-bike standards with loop-holes and flexible guidelines created a rich opportunity for manufacturers to create e-bikes that appealed to more users, namely, scooter-style electric bikes.
    Furthermore, due to changes in urban form, performance of alternative transportation modes decreased as trips lengths and congestion increased.  This made trips difficult to traverse by bicycle and slow by motorized modes, particularly buses and taxis.    
    The history of e-bikes in China provides an important lesson on the powerful impact of regulatory policy, given the evolution of technology to a market acceptable product. While technological progress was required to meet the customer demands for economics and performance, the regulatory environment provided strong impetus for the market to grow and for further investment in technology evolution. Without this the e-bike market would not have emerged. Support for this conclusion can be found by looking at the lack of growth in “anti e-bike” cities. There is further evidence of the sensitivity to local policy in Shanghai, where an alternative (LPG scooters) emerged in a regulatory environment that was otherwise favorable to e-bikes. Where regulatory policy is favorable / neutral, economics and customer expectations will determine market success.
   

    While electric bikes have some positive impacts on transportation and urban air quality, policy makers are not unanimously in favor of this mode resulting in e-bike bans in three cities. Safety is the most commonly cited concern due to their silent nature and increasing speed and weight.    City planners and policy makers are undecided on how to plan for and regulate e-bikes because it is not yet clear what effect they will have on travel behavior, public transportation use, and safety. To begin to understand these effects, we have surveyed 750 bicycle and 450 e-bike users in Shijiazhuang, a medium-sized city with particularly high two-wheeled vehicle (2WV) use, to identify differences in travel characteristics and attitudes (Weinert et al, 2006).
    From the survey results, we found that e-bikes are enabling people to commute longer distances. This has important implications on energy use, accessibility and urban expansion of cities. People under-served by public transportation are shifting to e-bike though they depend on public transit as a back-up option (i.e. during inclement weather).
    There are concerns by both bicycle and e-bike users about the e-bikes being too fast, however e-bikers find crossing intersection easier than bicycles. Women feel safer crossing intersections on an e-bike compared to regular bike, however they have strong reservations about increasing e-bike speed capability.
    E-bikes have zero tail-pipe emissions, however the electricity used to charge their batteries comes from power plants which emit pollution; these plants are 70% coal fired in China. Lead emissions from batteries production and recycling also have serious health implications due to high lead loss rates in the Chinese lead and battery industries (Cherry, 2006).    

Authors
Jonathan Weinert, PhD Candidate, UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies,
Chaktan Ma, Masters student, Tsinghua University Transportation Engineering,
Chris Cherry, PhD Candidate, UC Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies
Dr. Yang Xinmiao, Professor Tsinghua University