Jonathan Xavier Weinert 2008

"My Spring Festival in the Sticks"

Feb 15, 2006: Recently I had an eye-opening experience in learning about Chinese society. Spring Festival began Jan 29th, so I visited two of my classmates’ homes in some of the lesser-known parts of China. I’ve been here for 6 months now, but this was the first time I’ve actually been able to experience how average Chinese families LIVE day to day. These observations will show you a slice of life in China that’s much more prevalent than what I’ve been accustomed to seeing in the more affluent Shanghai. These are the people who are rising to the middle-class and who are going to make the biggest difference in China’s energy use over the next 30 years. The two most surprising discoveries I made were 1) how much energy they DON’T use, and 2) how much the environment is neglected.

First, let me describe to you how an average rural Chinese family lives.

The Lu Family, Shanghai Countryside:
The Lu's live in a small village about 50 km from downtown Shanghai. This area 10 years ago was completely rural, but small and large factories are starting to dot the scenery. While years ago, they farmed the gov’t owned fields in front of their home, the fields are now barren and the father is a general laborer in a 30-person plant that makes air conditioners. He makes $0.75/hr; much better than in the old days. The mother is a house-wife. Both have only primary school education. Their daughter lives a comfortable life in the city, and their son attends graduate school at Tongji. He is the only one of all his classmates from this town to go on to college.

The House
It’s surprisingly large (about the size of an average home in America) but very basic: on the first floor, there is very little furniture besides the kitchen table with four benches and a cabinet for storing food; upstairs, each room has a bed and a chair or two. My classmate’s room is barren, except for a bed, desk, a bookshelf (full of books), and some magazine cut-outs taped to the wall of…naturally… cars! The house is not heated at all, and there is no hot water heater for showers. At night, the temperature can fall below freezing but generally during the winter it in the 40-50’s. The floors downstairs are cement and there’s a handy well in one room to gather water to hand-wash clothes. Oh, and they have a live-in pet rooster which I only learned about AFTER it scared the bejesus out of me late one night when I went to take a wiz.

Dinner
As dinner time approached on my first night, they fired up the stove, literally! They brought in a big bundle of straw and wood and got a nice fire going to heat the woks directly above. We gathered around the dinner table in our winter jackets to prepare for the feast, (which was wonderful!). Afterwards, we stored the left-overs in the cupboard to sit…until breakfast the next day when we would re-eat what we didn’t finish the night before (along with some new additions). The leftovers were recycled like this for all three days at each meal, even the fish!

We sat around the table, drank tea, and chatted the rest of the night. At one point, the family started laughing. Not understanding a lick of their local dialect, I inquired. “My parents were just reminiscing on how tough life used to be before, and how during Spring Festival, they didn’t have nearly this many dishes to eat when we were growing up.” During those times, there was very little to eat. Way back during the father’s childhood, the kids often went hungry.

A Riddle: What’s long, wet, and you throw your trash in it?
My classmate collected the rubbish from dinner and the day, stuffed it in a plastic bag and went outside. “Where do you put your trash?”, I asked, since I didn’t see any rubbish bins outside. “We just toss it in the river (behind the house),” he replied, to my shock. “When the chemical companies came into town, they totally polluted the river. The river’s completely useless now, so we just throw our trash there.” This is the river he used to swim in as a child only 10 years ago. While he is deeply aware of the chemical pollution problem in his town, he also sees no problem dumping his trash in the river (and he is among the top <0.1% most-educated citizens).

I delved a little deeper into the whole factory pollution mess with my classmate. Basically, the people around town have no idea that this pollution is harmful to their health; they just think it smells bad. As I strolled past a number of houses in these villages, I saw more of the same trash piling up in front and behind houses. It’s not at all surprising that the factory spews their pollution into the river considering that everyone has the same habit of dispersing their waste directly outside their property line. I’m sure back in the father’s days when they didn’t have plastic bags and instant-noodle wrappers it was not such a problem, but while waste content has changed, behavior has not.

It seems that for a lot of people here, “wastebasket” is defined as: “(n): any ground-area outside your immediate space”. This idea is everywhere: On the train, where the man in front of me tossed his empty can into the aisleway; on the bus, where the girl next to me BARFED in the aisleway and nobody even flinched; the salon owner who sweeps the freshly cut hair of his customer out into the sidewalk in front.

Bedtime
They then informed me that it was time to get ready for bed. “I hope you don’t mind, but since we don’t have hot water, we just wash our face and feet each night,” the sister told me. During winter, they go into town to shower at the public facility…once per week. We all got our own little plastic basin, a towel, and a very small amount of hot water, just enough to do the trick. (by the way, this is exactly the same procedure I followed at my other friend’s home in the city.) The steamy hot water was surprisingly refreshing, actually! I climbed into bed that night fully decked in two layers of thermals, giggling a bit as I saw my breath fog up, trying to think back on how long it’s been since I could see my own breath before falling asleep.

Dec 20, 2005: It's been over four months now that I've been observing Shanghai. The following are some of my conclusions from this initial phase of my research which has involved attending automotive and hydrogen related conferences, interviewing experts in fuels/auto sector and academia, and individual "on the road" conversations and observations.

Shanghai Conclusions:
1. Fuel transitions here and in the rest of China will likely follow a slow, step-wise process of evolution. A leapfrog scenario seems inconceivable. Shanghai doesn't even have hybrids yet.
2. Hydrogen for commercial use is a long way out in Shanghai and Beijing. Likely more than 15 years. Even longer for the rest of China.
3. Gasoline and, increasingly, diesel will power Shanghai's vehicles over the next 15 years.

4. Coal-based synfuel production is very important to China. It is not ready commercially yet but it is coming and coming fast.
5 . Shanghai's most serious problem is air pollution. It is ubiquitous, inescapable, and affects the health of around 17 million people daily.
6 . The wide income gap among Shanghai's residents causes a big problem in setting regulations because of the poor's inability to afford new/cleaner equipment and better fuel. Vehicle's are kept in circulation for a
loooooong time. Thus, old cars with low turnover = very bad air quality
7 . Weak enforcement of regulations is a problem (e.g. black market fuel; inspection/certification processes subject to "wining and dining"-type influences)

What Shanghai Needs (in my own opinion):
1. More concrete data on current fuels and vehicles (less prospective models)
2. An "early-retirement home" for old dirty vehicles
3. An institution responsible solely for the city's poor air quality, like CARB or the SCAQMD in Cali. Shanghai EPA is currently in charge of this.
Why: to speed the otherwise-natural process of fuel evolution
Shanghai's Biggest Advantages:
1. Fleet vehicle #'s are dominant: taxis, buses, company-owned trucks. Perhaps these can be more easily controlled/regulated/converted.
2. 2010 Expo coming soon: the city wants to put on a good show and dress to impress.
3. Gov't support for new clean & efficient auto technologies is strong.
This is not necessarily for environmental reasons; it is mostly for economic reasons. They want to grow their local auto industry.

Lessons from the Literature: (Some interesting selections from some of the books I've read)

1. Mowery and Rosenberg: Path of Innovation (1998):
- The key factors why America was so innovative in the 20th century was the country's rich natural resource base, it's egalitarian social structure, and the formal institutionalization of research (accomplished through universities in the first half of 1900s, national labs in second half).
- "The relatively even distribution of wealth in America created a wider market for strandardized, homogeneous products, thereby allowing companies to take advantage of scale economies for production of goods." (p.169) China doesn't have this distribution, though markets are much more global
now.
- "A sustained economy's growth reflects a continuous shift in the economy's product and industry mix". Thriving economies are continually re-inventing themselves and coming up with new industries to grow.
- Power plants gained steady improvements in efficiency between the time of invention until the 1960's, then they hit a wall and improvements leveled off. The reason isn't entirely understood but represents a case where projections based on past performance didn't pan out like expected.

2. Selected Papers from the Energy Workshop: Industry Perspectives on Pioneer Process Plants: (1981)
This collection of reports looks at the costs performance of commercially unproven advanced energy technologies (e.g. power plants). The conclusions from this report made over twenty years ago may have applicability to H2 and alternative fuel production plants today.
- Bigger plants do not always result in scale economies. In fact, in some cases, it's more profitable to build several smaller plants (if they're of the same design and at the same location) to capitalize on greater learning effects. This is largely due to the increased operating costs and decreased capacity factor of big plants due to increased maintenance.
- Power plants are becoming so large, that it becomes difficult for any single organization to fund them. If funded by several groups, it becomes more difficult to manage. Large plants, though they benefit from
economies of scale, also have to operate for a longer period of time to recoup the initial investment.
- The cost of power plants didn't change substantially over time because as designers learned to build plants better, regulators imposed stricter environmental regulations.

November 10, 2005: The security guard from my dorm, Mr. Zhang, invited me to his home in neighboring Huang Du (the 1000 year old town next to Jiading) for lunch with his wife and 20yr old son. The wife and son both are both general laborers in local plants. None of them speak English. They moved here from a town in Henan province (12 hours train ride away) for a better life and to make more money. Sadly, their youngest son and daughter (still in high school) needed to stay behind to live with their parents (I'm not sure if this is because of the one-child rule in Shanghai). He hopes they will study hard and go to school in America.

He rents his home, a two-bedroom flat on the 2nd floor, overlooking the main street of this small, bustling town of 30,000. His home has no toilet. We walk a few blocks down the road to use the town's public bathroom. He asked me my monthly income (not all that uncommon, surprisingly). He said he, his wife, and his son combined do not make that much in a year. Their mode of travel: bike and bus. Needless to say, I'm getting a much better sense of the level of poverty in China. Despite the poverty however, I've experienced incredible generosity from the Chinese and feel much safer here than in most cities in America (and I just heard about the car-jacking in Davis. Say it ain't so!).

November 5, 2005

Just returned last week from the commercially thriving, incredibly well-lit, and massively polluted city of Hong Kong. While there, I visited Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) to discuss hydrogen stations and alternative fuels, and also had a nice hike with Hong Kong's MTR (Metro Transit Rail) Director of Sustainability. I learned many interesting things from the visit.

1. "Town gas": Hong Kong has extensive network of "town gas" pipelines throughout the island. This gas (also known as syngas) is about 50% H2, 20% natural gas, 30% CO. This pipeline network presents a unique pathway for transitioning to H2 stations (much different from any other city that I've heard of): purify the pipeline delivered town gas on-site at the H2 fueling station. No need for trucked h2, no need for on-site reformation/electrolysis (i.e. potentially cheaper). Hong Kong's town gas provider operates pretty much as a monopoly. One of the big uses of town gas on the island is, surprisingly, to generate steam for the clothing industry!

2. Gov't: Compared with China (& especially Shanghai), Hong Kong gov't is very slow when it comes to making technology changes. They have a "wait and see" attitude. Gov't officials are plagued by paralysis (they're afraid to do something wrong so they don't do anything). It's getting better now that the former President has left office. His replacement wants to fix this problem. There is very little "technology" expertise within gov't.

3. LPG: About 4-5 years ago, HK converted their fleet of taxis to LPG. They proceeded very slow and did a trial for a couple years, despite the fact that Tokyo had already made the conversion 14 years ago and had plenty of experience to draw from. The taxis were originally against the idea. LPG engines don't have the durability of diesel engines and the fuel's more expensive. Gov't however decided to offer a subsidy for both the fuel and the conversion process. Now it's cheaper for taxis to run on LPG than diesel, and cab drivers happy. LPG is ~$0.40/Litre (USD).

4. Electricity: HK has two electricity providers. One (on the island) operates exclusively on coal. The other (on the mainland), uses 1/3 coal, 1/3 nuclear, 1/3 oil.

5. Diesel: Hong Kong made the switch to low-sulfur diesel a few years ago. There is a problem however with "black-market" diesel; people sell very cheap diesel fuel which is half clean diesel, half really dirty stuff (like heating oils,etc.). Even if Shanghai switched to selling clean diesel, some would buy the black market product because it's so much cheaper.

6. HKUST: The folks at HKUST may play a lead role in drafting energy policy for HK and for spear-heading the hydrogen fueling station construction. They're must still waiting to hear from gov't if they win the contract to do this. If they win, expect to hear more from them about H2 stations.

7. Public Transit: HK's public transit system is remarkable. The subway is fast, clean, high-tech (and expensive!). THe buses are frequent, fast, and double-decker (my favorite kind! I like to ride on the top deck in the very front=)). The taxis are ubiquitous & spacious. And to top it all off, they have trolley's running up and down the city's main street all day. Major redundancy! The MTR is a privately owned company that competes with the bus system. The bus system is partially subsidized. MTR is profitable!

8. Air Quality: See the attached article, (from the front page of the Sunday paper, mind you.) People are talking about the bad air quality in the city (at least the group I was hanging out with was...I didn't even have to bring it up).

9. Traffic: though people say traffic is bad, I spent Monday morning rush hour walking and riding the trolley around the heart of downtown searching in vain for traffic jams on the city streets and the highways, none to be found. I must admit though, the pollution that morning was definitely tangible and uncomfortable. There's roughly 1.5 million cars here for 7 million people. Gas costs ~$1.5/litre (USD) so you can see why people choose public transit.

More observations:
I thought Shanghai had urban density. Man, It doesn't hold a light up to Hong Kong! Here, people wait in long lines just to use the elevator!

Dr. Fang from HKUST explained that where China goes, HK will follow (kind of like the little pilot fish that swim along side the massive great white sharks.) Whatever alternative fuel technology China adopts, expect HK to follow suit.


4. A local coal dispatch center in a small yet-undeveloped town in the middle of Shanghai (note the small coal bricks on the back of the bike. These are delivered throughout the town to local kitchens and houses for cooking.)

Nov 1, 2005: The security guard from my dorm, Mr. Zhang, invited me to his home in neighboring Huang Du (the 1000 year old town next to Jiading) for lunch with his wife and 20yr old son. The wife and son both are both general laborers in local plants. None of them speak English. They moved here from a town in Henan province (12 hours train ride away) for a better life and to make more money. Sadly, their youngest son and daughter (still in high school) needed to stay behind to live with their parents (I'm not sure if this is because of the one-child rule in Shanghai). He hopes they will study hard and go to school in America.

He rents his home, a two-bedroom flat on the 2nd floor, overlooking the main street of this small, bustling town of 30,000. His home has no toilet. We walk a few blocks down the road to use the town's public bathroom. He asked me my monthly income (not all that uncommon, surprisingly). He said he, his wife, and his son combined do not make that much in a year. Their mode of travel: bike and bus. Needless to say, I'm getting a much better sense of the level of poverty in China. Despite the poverty however, I've experienced incredible generosity from the Chinese and feel much safer here than in most cities in America (and I just heard about the car-jacking in Davis. Say it ain't so!).